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How real exchange rate policy can promote economic growth My new paper on real exchange rates and growth is now online.
Here is the summary in abstractese: I provide evidence that undervaluation (a high real exchange rate) stimulates economic growth. This is true particularly for developing countries, suggesting that tradable goods suffer disproportionately from the distortions that keep poor countries from converging. I present two categories of explanations as to why this may be so, focusing on louis vuitton shoes ladies (a) institutional/contractual weaknesses, and (b) market failures. A formal model elucidates the linkages between the level of the real exchange rate and the rate of economic growth. You are probably right that one reason why tradeables lose out in poorly governed countries is that they more complex and poor governance imposes greater costs on activities in which there is a high degree of interdependence unlike the barber shop. I only read your article quickly, so I hope I not missed your raising the same point, but another possible thing to think about is that a traded sector activity particularly in manufacturing may be much riskier in a number of respects. It's riskier on the downside because one is subject to competition from producers around the globe and to dumping from large firms and/or government policies around the world. Secondly it has a big upside for the symmetrical reason that if you manage to get things right (whether by design or default) there may be a big payoff as your market is the world. This risk may be inadequately managed in capital markets. Also in the event of the tradeables firm getting very successful, this may make it a more satisfactory prospect for rent seeking from its government than the barber shop. I guess you can add this possibility to your list of potential market failures. How can you have both time and country specific dummies in your regression? Is it that for every time period, you have 5 observations (one for each year in the time period)? If so, that was unclear from the text. If not, it seems like you will have no basis for comparison (since for every country in every time period, you have 1 observation). Also, I would really like to see more direct evidence that the devalued exchange rate is (exogenously) driving the growth. In particular, can you show that the growth that you attribute to the devaluation is coming from the tradables sector? I also like to see that non tradables sector shrank relative to what it would have been had there not been a devaluation. That is, your theory says that exchange rate devaluation causes growth by diverting resources from non tradables to tradables, where they are used more efficiently. The first half of that proposition is definitely verifiable; the second half may be as louis vuitton shoes philippines well, but that requires a whole bunch of messy TFP calculations (although as long as you have IO tables.) I not super familiar with the literature on contract theory, but isn contract failure or inadequate institutional support an instance of market imperfection? It certianly sufficies to ensure an underallocation of resources relative to the first best case. Are you sure your first explanation doesn just belong on the laundry list of market failures in section 3.2? I would like to ask something related to Turkey bearing your Turkish backround in my mind. When i ask to Central Bank officials (people on the monetary board) in their letures about this so called overvaluation and concerns of the exporters on this they give me a simple answer. There is only one goal of the independent CB all louis vuitton neverfull limited edition 2015 over the world. it is to protect the value and stability of the national currency against other currencies. So they keep interest rates at current levels in an attempt to catch their targeted inflation rates. What kind of path louis vuitton alma vernis replica should Turkey follow? i am a second year Economics major student in Turkey so i am not ready to grasp comlicated theories but a simple answer to make my mind would be very useful. i really appreciate you critical stance and am eager to follow your blog. While this may be a gross generalization and not really the thrust of your paper, would you say your conclusion would imply that choice of exchange rate regime would then be less important except as a means of achieving a state of undervaluation? From this perspective, it harder to justify a peg to the Dollar a managed float would be better. My second comment is on your argument for market failure I think the relative performance of Asia vis a vis other developing regions is that for the most part, undervaluation AND industrial policy were pursued not in substitution, but as complementary strategies. That certainly true of my country (Malaysia), South Korea and Singapore, less so in the case of Thailand. An inductive thought about exchange rates, exports, and innovation. If you are maintaining an undervalued exchange rate as part of a comprehensive development policy where the build up of exporting firms is a key goal then you have to be sending a lot of the foreign exchange out of the country to maintain the undervaluation. Thus, NOT putting to much of that money into the domestic market to create demand and build infrastructure (read China purchase of US bonds and so forth). If you are also a "late industrializer" with in the short term only a comparative advantage in low skilled labor then you are starting out as an assembler for many of the largest TNCs in the world (yes, still China). In the global electronics, automobile, and textiles industries the profit margin for assembly is 2 4 percent of final sale price (yes, $40 bucks to be split between the owner and thousands of workers for a $1000 laptop). It seems that such an environment HAS to breed innovation. To make a real profit (and have the huge trade surplus that China has) you have to learn to ramp up scale that means high quality products and a very high volume. Just a thought, but it seems to be the case the contracts keep coming! So, part of an orchestrated DYNAMIC comparative advantage strategy where a nation is also doing R and is engaged in industrial policies, the nation can climb the ladder with such innovation and skills in hand (read Lenovo buying the IBM Think Pad and being able to run a full scale firm rather than just assembly). So, what this ramble say: at the bottom rung of the ladder in the face of oligopsony pricing in the supply chain you need to be able to produce high volume high quality reliable products quickly. An undervalued exchange rate opens the door for you but the nature of the markets and the small profits for assembly make you lean and mean. If the nation helps you build a ladder and you are lean and mean you can climb up. China has done this by combining undervalued exchange rates with selective industrial and FDI policy (and relatively very low wages). 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